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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd