🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still