Diplomatic Proposals Set to be Presented to Russia Within Days, States Ukraine's President
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.
Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist
Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.
Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.
Defense Assurances and Allied Backing
“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.
Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”
However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.
Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute
On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.
American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.
Path Forward and Potential Outcomes
The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.